Conflict, Peace & Security

issue:04,

8 May 2022

ISP Mapping

Conflict Map of the Karenni Region

Of all Myanmar’s regions, the Karenni Region, which includes Kayah State and southern Shan State’s Pekon Township, has become one of the regions that has experienced some of the most sustained armed resistance to the post-coup military regime. There were at least 247 skirmishes and 123 military airstrikes. ISP-Myanmar Mapping shows the main areas of conflict in the Karenni region, locations of the clashes, where military airstrikes were conducted and houses burned down, as well as locations where the civilians were killed and highlights the areas and totals of internally displaced citizens. This data is based on information obtained between from May 21, 2021 and to April 30, 2022.

Number of IDPs Increase By Over 58,000 In April

Since the military coup on February 1, 2021, through to April 25, 2022, battles and skirmishes across the country have resulted in a total of 810,889 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). There were already over 497,200 IDPs prior to the coup; the total number of people displaced from their homes in Myanmar has now grown to more than 1,308,089. Additionally, there are over 1,002,000 refugees living in camps at Myanmar’s borders with Bangladesh, India and Thailand.

Over 2,300 Civilians Killed Within a Year of the Coup

According to records provided by the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), and data compiled by ISP-Myanmar, a total of at least 2,345 civilians were killed nationwide between February 1, 2021, and April 6, 2022. The death toll includes those killed in violent crackdowns by the State Administration Council’s (SAC’s) forces; those killed during interrogation by the SAC, as well as those arrested and those who were shot and killed amidst armed conflicts. These figures are based on the available data; the true civilian death toll may be higher.

Significant Rise of Armed Clashes in EAO-controlled Regions

The State Administration Council’s (SAC’s) forces and various Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) clashed at least 2,193 times in the eight months between July 1, 2021, to March 20, 2022. The clashes took place in the EAO-controlled areas of Karen, Kachin, Kayah, and Chin States. Among these, at least 1,775 clashes took place in the Karen National Union (KNU) territory. On March 19, the SAC’s air force dropped four bombs on Kwi-Lar and Ta-Kat-Pu villages in the KNU Brigade 3-controlled area, raising tensions significantly.

Sagaing Records Three-Month High in Refugees

Since the military staged a coup d’état on February 1, 2021, various forms of mass protest against injustice have occurred across Myanmar. Protests are still ongoing in a variety of different forms, including armed conflicts between the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and SAC’s forces in ethnic regions where those EAOs are based. Simultaneously, fighting between the People’s Defense Forces (PDF/LDF/CDF/CNDF/KNDF) and SAC’s forces has also erupted in some areas. This has created a growing need for humanitarian assistance as conflicts and clashes have intensified and the number of internally displaced persons has risen.

International Efforts to Solve the Myanmar Crisis: A Possible Playground for Global Superpowers?

On March 10, 2022, Japan’s Special Envoy for Myanmar National Reconciliation, Mr. Yohei Sasakawa met with Ethnic Armed Organization (EAO) leaders in Chiang Mai, Thailand. ASEAN’s Special Envoy to Myanmar, Mr. Prak Sokhonn, plans to visit Nay Pyi Taw in the third week of March. President Joe Biden is set to organize an ASEAN-U.S. Summit in Washington D.C. in the near future.

Three Perspectives to Consider on Myanmar’s Coup Anniversary

The post-coup situation should be evaluated on the basis of these three proposed perspectives. If dissidents prepare a systematic and long-term strategy, rather than pushing haphazard responses that can only achieve short-term results, they could more effectively realize the political goals to which most people in the country aspire. Provoking “revenge” and anger will only jeopardize the prospect for long-term success.

One Year On Since the Coup: Armed Clashes, Arrests and Deaths

A year on from the Myanmar military coup, civilian security challenges continue to rise. While anti-dictatorship movements continue in various forms, many instances of post-arrest violence and clashes with the military have led to humanitarian crises necessitating emergency assistance, increasing numbers of IDPs and record high numbers of civilian deaths.

Civilian Deaths Due to Conflicts Reach a Record High in More Than Thirty Years

In 2021, there were at least 3,598 deaths caused by the political and military conflict in Myanmar following the military coup, the highest on record in over 30 years since 1989. According to data compiled by ISP-Myanmar based on publications by media and independent organizations, at least 24,040 civilians have died from 1989 to 2021, with 15 percent of this death toll occurring in 2021 alone.

“Humanitarian Plus” Approach and Its Concerns

Three parties, namely the Karen National Union (KNU), the Chin National Front (CNF), and the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), issued a statement on January 20, 2022, supporting the concept of “Humanitarian Plus” proposed by the U.N. Special Envoy on Myanmar and added three more conditions.